ROK Realty Report: March 2026 Housing Market Update | Mortgage Rates Drop Below 6%

If you’ve been wondering whether the market is heating up, cooling down, or simply recalibrating — the answer is becoming clearer.

While headlines may sound mixed, the numbers tell a consistent story: the market is shifting toward balance. Rates have improved, inventory is expanding, and buyers are becoming more selective.

Here’s a breakdown of what the data shows — and what it means moving into the spring season.

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Mortgage Rates: A Psychological Shift Below 6%

For the first time in three and a half years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped back into the 5% range.

• 30-Year Fixed: 5.98% (down from 6.76% last year)

• 15-Year Fixed: 5.44% (down from 5.94% last year)

Crossing below 6% is both a financial and psychological milestone. Even modest rate reductions improve purchasing power and lower monthly payments. When combined with rising inventory, this creates improved affordability conditions heading into spring.

We’re already seeing early signs that buyers are re-engaging.

Sales Activity: Moderation, Not Collapse

Closed sales show a moderate year-over-year slowdown:

• Total Closed Sales: 5,090 (▼ 8.4%)

• Single-Family: 3,484 (▼ 7.4%)

• Townhouse/Condo: 1,120 (▼ 14.3%)

• Adult Communities: 458 (▲ 2.5%)

Demand hasn’t disappeared — it’s become more selective. The sharper pullback in the townhouse and condo segment suggests price sensitivity and higher buyer scrutiny in attached housing.

Interestingly, adult community sales rose slightly, indicating continued demand in the 55+ segment.

Inventory: More Options, Less Frenzy

Inventory levels are increasing across all property types:

• Single-Family Listings: 9,117 (▲ 1.7%)

• Townhouse/Condo Listings: 3,941 (▲ 9.4%)

• Adult Community Listings: 1,402 (▲ 17.2%)

Buyers now have more options than they did last year. While this does not represent a buyer’s market, it does reduce the extreme competition and urgency that defined the past few years.

This shift supports a more balanced negotiation environment.

Pricing: Stability with Targeted Corrections

Despite slower sales and higher inventory, pricing has remained relatively resilient:

• Single-Family Median Price: $575,000 (▲ 1.8%)

• Townhouse/Condo Median Price: $408,000 (▼ 5.1%)

• Adult Community Median Price: $365,000 (▼ 2.1%)

• Overall Median Price: $517,250 (▲ 1.6%)

Single-family homes continue to show stability, while attached housing and adult communities are experiencing modest price corrections.

This suggests demand remains strongest for detached homes, while buyers are negotiating more aggressively in other segments.

Market Pace: Slowing Toward Balance

Days on market have increased:

• Single-Family: 45 days (▲ 7.1%)

• Townhouse/Condo: 44 days (▲ 4.8%)

• Adult Communities: 56 days (▲ 24.4%)

Homes are taking longer to sell — particularly in the adult community segment — signaling that buyers are moving with more deliberation.

This isn’t a dramatic slowdown. It’s a normalization.

The Big Picture: A Healthier Spring Setup

Here’s what the data collectively suggests:

• Mortgage rates are improving.

• Inventory is rising.

• Sales are moderating.

• Pricing remains stable in core segments.

• Negotiation flexibility is returning.

The extreme seller’s market conditions of the past few years have softened. At the same time, demand hasn’t collapsed. Instead, we’re seeing a market that is gradually stabilizing.

What This Means for You

If You’re Selling:

Pricing strategy matters more than ever. Buyers have more options. Homes that are positioned correctly and presented well are still moving — but overpricing leads to stagnation.

If You’re Buying:

You have more negotiating power than last year. You also have more inventory to choose from. That said, well-priced homes continue to attract attention and sell.

What's Next?

If you have questions about how these trends affect your specific situation, you can learn more about our planning-first approach on the About Page.

When you’re ready to discuss your strategy and next steps, schedule a time through the Book a Call page. The conversation is focused, practical, and always at your pace—without pressure.